Goal-scoring dynamics in the Big-5 European football leagues: Situational and sex-based effects on match outcome
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47197/retos.v68.111879Keywords:
context, game criticality, men, women, team success, professional soccerAbstract
Introducción: A pesar de los recientes avances en la comprensión de los determinantes de la anotación de goles en el fútbol, persiste una notable brecha de investigación entre los juegos femeninos y masculinos, lo que justifica la necesidad de estudios más holísticos.
Objetivo: Este estudio observacional retrospectivo abordó esta brecha al examinar cómo las variables situacionales (país, localización del partido, período del juego, relación numérica, calidad del equipo y criticidad del gol) y el sexo influyen en el resultado del partido en las cinco principales ligas europeas durante dos temporadas (2020/21–2021/22).
Metodología: Se analizaron todos los goles anotados por equipos masculinos y femeninos en las divisiones de élite del fútbol inglés, español, italiano, alemán y francés (n = 15,366) mediante pruebas chi-cuadrado y regresión logística multinomial.
Resultados: El análisis bivariado mostró asociaciones significativas entre todas las variables situacionales y el resultado del partido, excepto con el período del partido. Los resultados de los modelos de regresión aplicados a los goles de mujeres y hombres demostraron influencias distintivas de las variables situacionales entre ambos. Las diferencias basadas en el país moldearon los resultados de los partidos en las ligas femeninas. Además, las mujeres mostraron una mayor propensión a ser influenciadas por la compleja interacción de factores contextuales durante el juego, posiblemente debido a un menor nivel de profesionalismo, habilidad y equilibrio competitivo. Los goles críticos, mayormente anotados en la primera mitad, fueron esenciales para obtener resultados favorables. No obstante, marcar en circunstancias críticas (es decir, aquellas que cambian el estado competitivo entre equipos oponentes) adquiere mayor preponderancia a medida que avanza el partido, especialmente en el fútbol masculino.
Conclusión: Conforme el fútbol evoluciona, incorporar estas perspectivas elevará el rendimiento y orientará las decisiones estratégicas de entrenadores, jugadores y otros. Buscar la excelencia en el fútbol requiere una constante adaptación al contexto situacional.
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